Mr. Trideep Bhattacharya

CIO - Equities, Edelweiss Asset Management Limited

With PGDM in Finance from SP Jain Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai and B.Tech in Electrical Engineering from IIT, Kharagpur, meet our CIO - Equities - Mr. Triddep Bhattacharya.

Trideep comes with over two decades of experience in Equity investing across Indian and Global markets. Prior to joining Edeleweiss AMC, he was instrumental in builiding a market leading PMS business at Axis Asset Management Company, as Senior Portfolio Manager – Alternate Equities.

He has also spent a significant amount of time as a Portfolio Manager at State Street Global Advisor and UBS Asset Management (London, UK). When not occupied with work, Trideep loves playing Tennis, Bridge and is hands on with few musical instruments.

1. With the markets getting back their mojo after four-months, small and mid-cap shares raced ahead of large caps in April. Can investors change their minds? What is your outlook for the rest of the calendar year 2023 (CY2023)?

Ans: Our overarching theme for the equity markets in 2023 revolves around "Recession Before Rebound". Our expectation is that during the first three to six months of CY23, we will witness the economic consequences resulting from the interest rate hikes implemented by major economies in CY22. However, as we progress through this period, which is likely to occur around the second or third quarter of the calendar year, we anticipate that global economies will reach their lowest point and start to show signs of an economic rebound in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

In line with this perspective, as we approach the second half of CY23, several key factors are expected to act as triggers for the equity markets. These factors include the peak of interest rates, the stabilization of global growth, and a reduction in geopolitical tensions on a global scale. Additionally, we anticipate that inflation will remain persistent, leading to a gradual reduction rather than an abrupt change.

Lastly, we would like to highlight that the valuation discrepancy between large-cap and mid/small-cap stocks has now realigned to historical averages. Consequently, the mid/small-cap space has become an attractive destination for stock-picking, offering opportunities for wealth creation.

2. What are the new challenges that, in your opinion, will steer the equity markets moving forward?

Ans: Our assessment indicates that the equity markets may encounter new challenges going forward. These challenges may include persistent inflation, resulting in prolonged periods of high interest rates, a severe and destructive El Nino event, and the insolvency of a globally significant bank and finally, less than favorable outcome in national elections in 2024.

3. How have your schemes performed in FY23?

Ans: Overall, I would like to describe FY23 as a year of strong alpha cross our long-only funds. We also, note that amongst all strategies, our mid-cap strategy had a particularly strong finish to FY23 with an alpha of about 200bps on YTD basis.

As we implement our "FAIR" investment philosophy into action, we view FY23 as a year of favorable outcome and continue to invest time and action in following the process diligently.

4. What is your strategy for consumption-related plays? 

Ans: We are currently underweight consumption-related plays in our portfolio, as we feel that consumption is current witnessing the negative impact of high inflation, while rural consumption could get impacted by a potential severe EL Nino wave ahead. However, we continue to evaluate opportunities on a case-by-case basis.

5. Inflows in the mutual fund industry through SIPs reached Rs 1.56 lakh crore in 2022-23, up 25 per cent from the preceding fiscal year. Which category/categories have seen the most growth in terms of investment? Does the investor decision prove to be in line with the expected trend? Express your opinion.

Ans: SIPs remain a popular choice for numerous new investors looking to enter the mutual fund market. The study by CAMS found that over 60% of millennials began their mutual fund investments through SIPs. The growth of SIPs has been particularly strong in Midcap, Smallcap, and Flexicap Funds among various equity funds. Despite market volatility, investors have maintained their confidence in SIPs, and this trend appears to be increasing. It seems that investors have learned the value of patience in the game of SIP and equity investing, which is a positive development. Overall, this trend is expected to continue and strengthen in the future.

6. Metaverse centric funds are launched across the USA, Asian and European countries. What is your opinion about the development of these funds in the future for generating returns for Indian investors? Will investors be able adapt to the risk/reward from such funds if launched in India? 

Ans: Investing in such funds can provide Indian investors with exposure to companies involved in the development of metaverse-related technologies, virtual reality, augmented reality, blockchain, and other relevant sectors. These investments have the potential to generate returns, especially if the metaverse continues to evolve and gain mainstream adoption.

However, it's important to note that investing in metaverse-centric funds, like any investment, carries risks. The metaverse is a relatively new and rapidly evolving concept, and its future trajectory and commercial success are uncertain. Additionally, investing in emerging technologies and sectors typically involves higher levels of risk compared to more established investment options.

In summary, while metaverse-centric funds hold the potential for generating returns for Indian investors, it is important for investors to carefully assess the risks, conduct due diligence, and make informed investment decisions based on their individual circumstances and investment objectives. Consulting with a financial advisor or professional can provide personalized guidance in this regard.

Mr. Vinit Sambre

Senior Vice President, Head – Equity Investments , DSP Mutual Fund

Vinit Sambre is Head – Equities at DSP Investment Managers. He has been managing the DSP Micro Cap Fund since June 2010 and is also the Fund Manager for the DSP Small and Mid Cap Fund. Vinit specializes in the small and mid-cap space and has over 20 years of relevant work experience.

Vinit joined DSPIM in July 2007, as Portfolio Analyst for the firm's Portfolio Management Services (PMS) division, which manages discretionary accounts and provides advisory services to institutional clients. As a research analyst, his focus was on sectors like Pharmaceuticals, Power Utilities, Chemicals, Fertilizers and Textiles.

Previously, he was with DSP Merrill Lynch as a part of its Global Private Client business. He spent 20 months at DSP Merrill Lynch as Equity Strategist. Prior to DSP Merrill Lynch, he was employed with IL&FS Investsmart Limited as an Equity Analyst in their PMS division. He has also worked with UTI Investment Advisory Services as Equity Analyst for the offshore fund - India Growth Fund. Vinit is a Chartered Accountant from Institute of Chartered Accountant of India.

Q . The Total Expense Ratio (TER) is charged based on the category of the scheme under the new expenditure structure that SEBI introduced for mutual funds. Will this result in a change in investors' general buying habits for mutual funds or for a certain class of schemes?

Answer : The Total Expense Ratio (TER) is the fee charged by mutual funds to cover their operational expenses, such as management fees, administrative costs, and other expenses incurred while running the fund. SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) recently introduced a new expenditure structure for mutual funds, which categorized mutual funds into various categories, and prescribed a different expense structure for each category.

This new expenditure structure is expected to impact investors' buying habits for mutual funds, particularly for the funds falling under the high TER category. Since investors tend to compare mutual funds based on their returns, a higher TER could affect the returns, making the funds less attractive to investors.

However, it is worth noting that investors should not make investment decisions solely based on TER. Other factors, such as the fund's investment objective, past performance, risk profile, and investment style, should also be considered before making investment decisions.

Q . Investors have developed a faith in the markets over the period. What do you think about how investor behaviour has changed, taking into account the current investors. Do you still believe they are making investments based on herd mentality, loss-aversion bias, etc.? What is your point of view?

Answer : It appears that investors' behavior has transformed over time, and the current cohort of investors is more knowledgeable and educated about investing. They seem to exhibit a higher level of maturity in their decision-making than they did two decades ago. Rather than overreacting to negative news, investors today view market volatility as a chance to enhance their exposure and purchase units at a lower valuation. This was not always the case in the past. Furthermore, investors have become increasingly aware of the advantages of investing for the long term, which can help them in their wealth creation journey and allow them to achieve their objectives. philosophy, the Union Budget had little in terms of outright populism. The broader push towards infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, and tax rationalization was consistent with the direction chosen over the last few years.

Q . How do you play different themes across your portfolio, and where do you exercise extra caution while choosing any sector/ a stock?

Answer : Our investment framework involves maintaining diversified portfolios, allowing us to explore companies across various sectors. We prioritize companies that exhibit the following characteristics:

• Potential for sustained long-term growth that surpasses their peers,
• Strong and dedicated management,
• Efficient capital utilization with a return on capital employed (ROCE) of at least 15-16%, and
• Low leverage.

Over the years, we have steered clear of companies with poor capital allocation records, excessive debt levels, and businesses that are vulnerable to disruption due to technological advancements or regulatory changes.

Q . The logistics sector in India seems one of the most promising sectors looking at the government’s focus towards infrastructure. What is your opinion? Are you positively invested in this sector?

Answer : Although the logistics sector holds long-term potential, we have refrained from investing in it due to its poor track record in terms of capital efficiency. However, if logistics businesses can demonstrate sustainable superior capital returns, we would consider exploring investment opportunities in this sector.

Q . Looking forward towards the global market, the markets seem volatile. While, India is not parallel to these prevailing global market trends. Do you still advise staying handy on equity funds? Or should we consider making some changes in our current asset allocation instead?

Answer : The Indian economy's long-term prospects have never looked as promising as they do now. This is due to the speed of reforms, increased infrastructure investments, and government initiatives to improve the ease of doing business. Additionally, India's demographics, with its expanding working-age population, ensure that our economy will experience superior long-term growth. Considering these factors, we hold a positive long-term outlook for equities and advise investors to stay invested and capitalize on any market volatility to increase their equity exposure.

We have weathered uncertain market environments before, and the market has consistently emerged stronger. Over the long term, earnings growth has been the key factor driving returns, and markets have reflected that growth. Despite the current uncertain environment, companies have continued to invest in future growth, further increasing our confidence about their future growth prospects.

Further, equities are among the few asset classes capable of beating inflation over the long term, as companies adjust prices to cover inflationary costs. Therefore, for investors seeking to beat inflation, equity remains a relevant category, and their allocation should be appropriately tailored to their risk tolerance and investment objective.

Q . Mutual funds are enhancing its digital capabilities with cloud infrastructure, automation, AI and speech analytics. Do you vision such advancements to achieve efficiency in returns for MFs?

Answer : Certainly, the advancements in digital capabilities such as cloud infrastructure, automation, AI, etc. have the potential to enhance the efficiency of mutual funds (MFs) and ultimately help in taking better decisions.

For instance, cloud infrastructure allows MFs to store and process large amounts of data, making it easier to analyze and make informed investment decisions. Automation, on the other hand, enables MFs to execute repetitive tasks, freeing up fund managers to focus on higher-value activities such as research and analysis. AI can also help to uncover insights and patterns in data, which can guide in our investment decisions.

We are exploring these technologies, however it is premature to discuss them in detail at this stage.

Mr. Sandeep Yadav

Senior Vice President, Head – Fixed Income, DSP Mutual Fund

Mr. Sandeep has a total work experience of almost 20 years.
He joined DSP Investment Managers in September 2021 as Senior Vice President Fixed Income Investments, Sandeep has previously worked for Yes Bank, and had headed the Derivatives Structuring, Fixed Income Trading and Primary Dealership. Prior to that Sandeep had worked in Technology space in Cognizant Technologies, Hughes Services and Mahindra British Telecom.
He is a Computer Engineer (Pune University) and PGDBM (IIM Bangalore). Sandeep is also a CFA chartered holder.

Q1. Many investors lack faith in debt funds to help them achieve their financial objectives. Can debt markets offer investors double-digit returns in the long-term? Which mix of debt funds would you suggest?

No. Going forward Debt funds may offer double digit returns for a span of few years, but it is incorrect to expect double digit returns in the long term. The long term returns of debt funds will be anchored around the yield of the bonds – which is around 7.5% currently. Active management can only increase alpha by some amount. It is unlikely that active management can give returns in double digit – when the YTM of the bonds is under 8%.

We prefer dynamic bond funds and short-term fund category. With the change of the taxation the active funds will need to take bigger calls – and I believe that this will only be better for the industry.

Q2. Recently, Indian mutual funds and their salesperson attempted to incite a "buying" panic. This was in response to a new taxation rule that came into effect on April 1, 2023. Does that mean curtains for debt funds in the new financial year?

Not at all. The debt funds still offer significant advantages over many other traditional investment opportunities life FD. They are easier to exit, with no penalty. In case yields come lower, in debt funds one can make capital gains. Also, in active debt funds the risk can be dialled up or down – which is rare in other investment channels.

Q3. For the upcoming year, the government has made numerous adjustments to the taxation, returns, and other aspects of investment regulations in mutual funds. Could you please offer some effective investment strategies for novice investors taking into account the new rules?

I would suggest such an investor to invest in active funds with lower credit risks. The active funds will ensure that the Fund manager is taking most of the interest calls – which is needed as the investor may not be having enough experience to take such calls themselves. Since the investor may already be having FD in their investments, they can delay investments into passive funds.

Also, usually novice investors may get swayed by higher YTM or past returns. Often, not always, these are higher because of credit risks that these funds may be taking. As we have seen in the past, these credit risks may give consistently good returns, but can give large losses when the turn sour. Credit risks are more a domain of sophisticated investor, and I believe that the novice investors should take time before adding such risks to their portfolio.

Q4. Please comment on the quality/ credit rating of your primary debt funds.

We believe that most of our investors invest in debt funds to get reasonable return – but primarily to protect their capital. Under this philosophy we are very quality conscious. We select a credit universe as a fund house that is approved by our credit committee. This universe has companies having not only strong financial strength but also and good governance. However, every fund of ours has its own investor class – depending upon their risk profile. Thus, within the credit universe, each fund would only select credits that are suitable for the investor class.

Most of our funds are invested in the highest rating of AAA or A1+ papers. However, in some funds we do take very selected AA+ papers – which we believe have strong risk profile. We generally are conscious of investments in lower rated papers and as of now only our credit risk fund has long term AA rated papers– which is a regulatory requirement.

Q5. Are there opportunities for retail traders to make money in bonds trading? Or is it a big guy’s domain?

Bonds in India are more of an institutional play. The data that drives the bonds is less widely disseminated, and the practical literature on India’s fixed income markets is limited and rare. Thus, there is information asymmetry for retail traders. On the other hand, they would be trading against insitututional traders who have better access to data, information and are probably more experienced. I strongly believe that this information asymmetry makes bonds trading much more of a barrier for retail. While they may be able to get one-off calls right – it may be driven more by fortune and difficult to replicate it in long term.

Q6. Inflation having breached the upper tolerance band of 6% for two consecutive months, January and February 2023. What are your expectations on the RBI to hike repo rate for the upcoming rate? What have you planned for your current portfolio?

RBI is close to the peak rates. I personally believe that the last of rate hikes is behind us – but if data worsens a final rate hike will not be a surprise. Yet, I believe that a final hike or not is not an important consideration to make a portfolio. We are at the end of the rate cycle – and waiting for final 5-10 bp rise in yields before investing is being penny wise and pound foolish. We have seen how the rates have crashed dramatically in developed markets – even when Central banks are hiking rates. A more dovish central banks will mean further yield fall.

We added duration in our portfolio couple of months back – as we believed that the worst of the expectations was getting priced in. We maintain higher duration in our portfolios for the time being.

Mr. Avnish Jain

Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco MF

Mr. Avnish Jain is the Head of Fixed Income at Canara Robeco Asset Management Company, Robeco’s joint venture in India. Avnish with over 25 years of experience across many segments of the industry is actively involved in managing the fixed income funds which include Canara Robeco Income Fund, Canara Robeco Corporate Bond Fund , Canara Robeco Conservative Hybrid Fund and Canara Robeco Equity Hybrid Fund.

Prior to joining Canara Robeco, Avnish was a Senior Fund Manager with ICICI Prudential AMC.

His stint also includes, Head of Fixed Income with Deutsche Asset Management, Senior Consultant - Professional Services with Misys Software Solutions, Head of Trading with Yes Bank, Senior Trader-Proprietary Trading with ICICI Bank and Senior Analyst with UTI Securities Exchange Ltd.

Avnish Jain has done his B.Tech from IIT Kharagpur and post-graduation from IIM Kolkata.

Q1. The repo rate has now been increased by a cumulative 250 bps since April 2022. Further, the effective policy rate has undergone an increase of 315bps. How can it impact the investors to an extent looking at the current market? Are you expecting a reversal in the short to medium term?

The rate hikes in last 1 year have been unprecedented driven by inflationary pressures globally as well locally. Markets tend to adjust to financial tightening well in advance, incorporating both rate hikes already delivered as well future expectations. The current yield curve has flattened considerably with 1 yr tbill around 7.30% and 10Y G-SEC around 7.47% (annualised). Corporate bond yield curve is similar. The impact on funds has already been felt in last one year. We believe most of market adjustment has already been done and hence there should not be any major uptick in yields from current levels. In terms of future direction, it is generally expected that RBI may raise repo rate by 25bps in April 2023 policy, and pause thereafter. Considering that the inflation trajectory (as per RBI projections) does not fall below 5% in FY2024, we do not anticipate any rate easing in FY2024 (barring sharp drop in inflation due to global factors). Hence markets may continue to trade in range in short to medium term.

Q2: Do you suggest avoiding some debt funds noting the current fluctuations in the debt markets? What is your recommendation for long-term debt investors whether it is the right time to invest?

Markets seems to have adjusted to the rate hikes delivered in past 1 year as well as expected rate hikes to come. There has been sharp adjustment in rates, especially in the short end of segment. From hereon, we expect markets to remain range bound and consolidate at current levels as we do not expect any rate easing measures in short to medium term. At current levels, long term debt investors can increase allocation to fund categories like Banking & PSU Debt funds and Corporate Debt funds.

Q3: What are the major challenges you face while managing liquidity risk in your portfolio?

Liquidity risk management is an important part of overall portfolio management by the fund manager. Liquidity risk can be managed by keeping high proportion of assets in cash, near cash instruments. Further highly liquid assets like government bonds, tbills and AAA/A1+ in the portfolio aid in managing liquidity in the portfolio. Most of our debt funds are predominantly invested in TBills/G-SECs/ AAA papers, and hence we do not anticipate any major liquidity risk in the portfolios.

Q4: Debt market is still a task to understand for many investors except for some. With your experience what can be a few key pointers before picking a right debt mutual fund for oneself?

Its majorly the time horizon of the investment and the risk taking ability of the investor which should decide the debt fund which needs to invested in.

Q5: The gross GST revenue collection for the month of January 2023 accounted for Rs. 1,55,922 Crore (second highest ever). How will this impact the debt market?

GST revenue collections have been robust throughout FY2023. A higher GST collection could likely reduce overall government borrowings as well improve government finances, leading to lower fiscal deficit. A lower fiscal deficit, ceteris paribus, generally is positive for debt markets and may lead to rates trending lower as government borrowing pressure eases. Further drop in government rates impact rates in other parts of financial systems and overall have a positive impact on other economic parameters like growth and inflation as well.

Q6: How did the previous year go for you as a fund manager? What were your successes and what portfolio enhancements would you make?

FY2023 was extremely challenging year for debt funds as an unprecedented rate hike cycle, globally as well locally, had to be managed. Geo-political upheavals further added to the uncertainty. In this scenario, managing liquidity in the portfolio was of upmost importance, as it may be required, in case of unforeseen circumstances leading to redemption pressures. Credit risk could also have arisen, however, the nature of our portfolios (mainly in Tbills/GSECs/AAA assets) means that credit risk was minimal whilst ensuring ample liquidity for any unforeseen requirements. With focus on high quality portfolios, our portfolio strategy looks to manage liquidity and interest rate risk to deliver superior risk adjusted returns for investors.